Announcing the Book Review Roadmap
Some Giants Are More Stable Than Others
Recently, I’ve been thinking about the direction of this newsletter. Before, I was content with introducing a few important new ideas (iterated systems, anti-optimized institutions, message-mindset fit), but lately I’ve been asked more frequently for a more comprehensive worldview. Like most people, more than 90% of my worldview is derivative of ideas that aren’t mine, so this is a departure from what I’ve been trying to do recently. Nonetheless, I have more time for it. So I’ll be giving this more comprehensive worldview through a series of 15 book reviews, hopefully to be done within the next year alongside usual articles. These books complement and interact with my closer-to-original ideas. Some of them are books I’ve read and others are ones that I’ve had recommended to me. They are very likely true, important, and interesting. They’re roughly divided into five sections focused on my most important “unorthodox” narratives.
Individual Differences are Extreme
Blueprint: How DNA Makes Us Who We Are
Robert Plomin
https://www.amazon.ca/Blueprint-How-DNA-Makes-Who/dp/0262039168
The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature
Steven Pinker
https://www.amazon.ca/Blank-Slate-Modern-Denial-Nature/dp/0142003344
I’ve read neither of these books, believe it or not. People I trust tell me Blueprint is good and based and cites the same studies I post on twitter. In general I think the evidence for widespread differences is strong enough that any reasonably intelligent person taking the topic seriously will have (relative to the general population) extremely similar conclusions. So these books are mostly selected for popularity / good writing.
Most People Have Reactions, Not Beliefs
The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life
Kevin Simler, Robin Hanson
https://www.amazon.ca/Elephant-Brain-Hidden-Motives-Everyday/dp/0190495995
Thinking Fast And Slow
Daniel Kahneman
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail
Ray Dalio
https://www.amazon.ca/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/dp/1982160276
A problem I’ve encountered recently is that I’ll use this line (“most people have reactions, not beliefs”) and people will have no idea what I’m talking about, despite me believing that this is almost self-evidently true, and it’s actually more true the more you take psychology seriously. I think the treatment of most people as “mostly rational, but with biases to correct for” is fundamentally wrong. A very small subset of people are consistent, let alone rational, in most areas of life, so it makes more sense to see rationality as the exception. This may seem like a semantic distinction but to me it’s quite important. Hopefully my reviews will fully explain why.
The first two books are fairly popular psychology books, so their inclusion in this category shouldn’t be surprising. The third may be more surprising. It’s primarily a book about economics, but the primary purpose of including it in this review is to apply the same idea to institutions, especially markets and governments.
Communication Increases Variance
The Essential McLuhan
Eric McLuhan
https://www.amazon.com/Essential-McLuhan-Eric/dp/0465019951
(h/t Katherine Dee)
The Network State
Balaji Srinivasan
https://thenetworkstate.com/
I promised a Network State review so you guys will get it, eventually. I’m trying to figure out how not to make it an infohazard, since I think the most extremely positive consequence of a Network State system, open moral innovation, will be reacted to extremely negatively by both status-driven and reaction-driven people (almost everyone). In general I’ve been putting this off because I’m not sure how good of a job I can do capturing the whole ethos of the book, which was my original goal. But I think setting a hard deadline for this is important.
I also promised a few people who recommended The Essential McLuhan that I’d take McLuhan more seriously. The common thread between these books is my historical narrative of technology, which is a work in progress but very important to my thinking.
The Tripartite War:
Normies ⇔ Reaction
Strivers ⇔ Social Anxiety
Explorers ⇔ Consistency
The True Believer
Eric Hoffer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_True_Believer
(h/t Marc Andreesen)
Thus Spoke Zarathustra
Friedrich Nietzsche
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thus_Spoke_Zarathustra
Sadly, Porn
Edward Teach (The Last Psychiatrist)
https://www.amazon.ca/Sadly-Porn-Edward-Teach-MD/dp/1734460822
The Managerial Revolution
James Burnham
https://www.amazon.ca/Managerial-Revolution-What-Happening-World/dp/1839013184
The Populist Delusion
Neema Parvini
https://www.amazon.ca/Populist-Delusion-Neema-Parvini/dp/1922602442
(h/t Alex Kaschuta)
I cheat a little here, since the Sadly, Porn review is done. I mention Zarathustra a bit here but I think it deserves its own review. These reviews make up my version of a theory on class, status, and culture war. I haven’t thoroughly read The True Believer or The Populist Delusion yet and I’m told I’ll enjoy both of them.
The World as Sorting Algorithm
Moral Mazes
Robert Jackall
https://www.amazon.com/Moral-Mazes-World-Corporate-Managers/dp/0199729883
(h/t Zvi Mowshowitz)
Skin in the Game
Nassim Taleb
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skin_in_the_Game_(book)
The Gray Lady Winked: How the New York Times's Misreporting, Distortions and Fabrications Radically Alter History
Ashley Rindsberg
https://www.amazon.ca/Gray-Lady-Winked-Misreporting-Fabrications/dp/1736703307
(h/t Balaji Srinivasan)
This is a mostly original idea, but hopefully I can apply it in ways that make it more understandable. Rewriting my selection effect / iterated systems podcasts and articles and unpublished book chapters is also important. These three books seem fairly unrelated but hopefully when the reviews are done you’ll see why I grouped them together.
Since this is also going to be a reading list for many people, I’ll give some honorable mentions:
iGen
Jean Twenge
https://www.amazon.ca/iGen-Super-Connected-Rebellious-Happy-Adulthood/dp/1501151983
Hierarchy in the Forest
Christopher Boehm
https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?content=reviews&isbn=9780674006911
(h/t Rob Henderson)
China's Gilded Age: The Paradox of Economic Boom and Vast Corruption
Yuen Yuen Ang
https://www.amazon.ca/Chinas-Gilded-Age-Economic-Corruption/dp/1108478603
(h/t Richard Hanania)
The Future Is Faster Than You Think
Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler
https://www.amazon.ca/Future-Faster-Than-You-Think/dp/1982109661
The Precipe
Toby Ord
https://theprecipice.com/
Just a random commenter here, but I am very much looking forward to this.
Moral Mazes is excellent though I'm curious in what sense it's about "The World As Sorting Algorithm"?
Never mind. As I started to type this comment, I think I figured out. There are two main theories for why bureaucracies are the way they are:
(1) The Incentive Theory: Bureaucracies are made of normal people who because of perverse incentives, behave in suboptimal ways.
(2) The Selection Theory: Bureacracies are made of "bureaucratic" people who are drawn to a system that matches their natural psychological inclinations. Normal people are repulsed, and thus, opt out of the system, leaving only those who love bureaucracy for the sake of bureaucracy.
In my opinion, Moral Mazes is agnostic about whether incentives or selection are the primary cause of bureaucracies. I'm curious to see you make your case though.