Effective Altruism and AI Safety are associated and overlapping movements, but not all Effective Altruists believe in p(doom). My own p(doom) is around ~5% and is mostly related to idiot generals setting up autonomous weapons without proper safeguards. I think the real heart of Effective Altruism is and always should be malaria prevention, with a side of speculative efforts like the Far Out Initiative or eliminating all mosquitoes. The data-driven approach to charity is valuable, and I fear throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
I do agree with you: AI Safety is a delusional circlejerking cult and a plateau in AI progress will come within 2 years, along with the rapid unplanned deflation of the AI stock bubble.
I. AI Doom is not in the cards. It will inevitably run up against physical and processing limitations. (And, to my simple mind, we can always just unplug the cord.)
II. AI Doom is a pretext for regulatory capture, to 1) attain monopoly power and regularize fraud; and 2) gatekeep AI so it doesn't say inconvenient things, particularly as they might inconvenience 1).
III. The EA/AI Doomers are not particularly bright, liars, and glib opportunists whom no sensible or principled person enjoys being around.
I hope I got it right and I appreciate this kind of article, grounded in people and realities versus the usual ideological babble.
Brother, I like your work attacking the left in other areas but your anti-ai doom stuff isn't convincing.
How about we don't build an alien superintelligence in the same way how about we don't try to broadcast to and summon aliens? Or invite millions of third world foreigners? Simple RW, threat-minded stuff.
As far as I can tell your main argument is that AI development will slow down due to technological limits so we won't have ASI by 2040, but given the continued capabilities increase since 2023 of opus and fable and astra https://epoch.ai/publications/have-ai-capabilities-accelerated I don't see how you can have high confidence that we have left the exponential part of the S curve and especially not high confidence on how slow the rate of slowdown of the upper part of the s curve will be and how high the plateau will be and whether the plateau will be above or below the level needed for AI carrying out AI research . Like Scott Alexander explained in S curves won't save you. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-sigmoids-wont-save-you
I'm not aware of any argument by you that an unaligned super-intelligence isn't a serious threat to humanity , or a way of how to achieve alignment that is stable under recursive self-improvement so it seems like the best you have is confidence that super-intelligence is 14 years away that isn't warranted by the mixed evidence.
I do not understand how open borders is connected to making a superior AI. The RW position would be the Kimi one, open source open weights, where every man can potentially have his own private AI. You deal with the government having guns by having guns, and likewise you deal with Ai.gov with militia.ai.
Frieren reference is goated 🤌
Effective Altruism and AI Safety are associated and overlapping movements, but not all Effective Altruists believe in p(doom). My own p(doom) is around ~5% and is mostly related to idiot generals setting up autonomous weapons without proper safeguards. I think the real heart of Effective Altruism is and always should be malaria prevention, with a side of speculative efforts like the Far Out Initiative or eliminating all mosquitoes. The data-driven approach to charity is valuable, and I fear throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
I do agree with you: AI Safety is a delusional circlejerking cult and a plateau in AI progress will come within 2 years, along with the rapid unplanned deflation of the AI stock bubble.
That shrimp plushie would have had the opposite effect on me. Just looking at the image gives me a slight craving for some.
Let me see if I understand your thesis:
I. AI Doom is not in the cards. It will inevitably run up against physical and processing limitations. (And, to my simple mind, we can always just unplug the cord.)
II. AI Doom is a pretext for regulatory capture, to 1) attain monopoly power and regularize fraud; and 2) gatekeep AI so it doesn't say inconvenient things, particularly as they might inconvenience 1).
III. The EA/AI Doomers are not particularly bright, liars, and glib opportunists whom no sensible or principled person enjoys being around.
I hope I got it right and I appreciate this kind of article, grounded in people and realities versus the usual ideological babble.
Brother, I like your work attacking the left in other areas but your anti-ai doom stuff isn't convincing.
How about we don't build an alien superintelligence in the same way how about we don't try to broadcast to and summon aliens? Or invite millions of third world foreigners? Simple RW, threat-minded stuff.
As far as I can tell your main argument is that AI development will slow down due to technological limits so we won't have ASI by 2040, but given the continued capabilities increase since 2023 of opus and fable and astra https://epoch.ai/publications/have-ai-capabilities-accelerated I don't see how you can have high confidence that we have left the exponential part of the S curve and especially not high confidence on how slow the rate of slowdown of the upper part of the s curve will be and how high the plateau will be and whether the plateau will be above or below the level needed for AI carrying out AI research . Like Scott Alexander explained in S curves won't save you. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-sigmoids-wont-save-you
I'm not aware of any argument by you that an unaligned super-intelligence isn't a serious threat to humanity , or a way of how to achieve alignment that is stable under recursive self-improvement so it seems like the best you have is confidence that super-intelligence is 14 years away that isn't warranted by the mixed evidence.
I do not understand how open borders is connected to making a superior AI. The RW position would be the Kimi one, open source open weights, where every man can potentially have his own private AI. You deal with the government having guns by having guns, and likewise you deal with Ai.gov with militia.ai.