In July 2024, I think even the doomiest of doomers have to concede the current generation of frontier models are not going to cause an existential catastrophe.
As you've observed, the NTIA recommends not restricting current model weights, while preserving the option to do this in the future: "NTIA's recommendation, that the government should not restrict the wide availability of model weights for dual-use foundation models at this time....while preserving the option to restrict the wide availability of certain classes of model weights in the future." That seems pretty sensible and makes room for sensible precaution around existential risk, in my view. My priority would be ensuring that there really is the preservation of an option to restrict weights in the future, when specific widely-agreed risks arise.
There certainly are doomers advocating for the continued protection of current model weights. A lot of that comes down to a desire to set a precedent for future, more powerful models. If there was a consensus framework (like NTIA's sensible CBRN framework above) that set a clear roadmap on when model weight release restrictions could be imposed when models display autonomy, persuasion, and CBRN risks, some of the pressure for current model weights to be suppressed would dissipate.
In July 2024, I think even the doomiest of doomers have to concede the current generation of frontier models are not going to cause an existential catastrophe.
As you've observed, the NTIA recommends not restricting current model weights, while preserving the option to do this in the future: "NTIA's recommendation, that the government should not restrict the wide availability of model weights for dual-use foundation models at this time....while preserving the option to restrict the wide availability of certain classes of model weights in the future." That seems pretty sensible and makes room for sensible precaution around existential risk, in my view. My priority would be ensuring that there really is the preservation of an option to restrict weights in the future, when specific widely-agreed risks arise.
There certainly are doomers advocating for the continued protection of current model weights. A lot of that comes down to a desire to set a precedent for future, more powerful models. If there was a consensus framework (like NTIA's sensible CBRN framework above) that set a clear roadmap on when model weight release restrictions could be imposed when models display autonomy, persuasion, and CBRN risks, some of the pressure for current model weights to be suppressed would dissipate.
Strong agree on the politicization!
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