What Economic Forecasts of AI All Get Wrong
In all the AI journalism I've been reading, this is the first piece in a long time that felt like it delivered on its headline in a smart and satisfying way. Great article
I still believe that LLMs are (basically) bullshit artists (in the Frankfurtian sense). LLMs simply can't tell truth from fiction, and don't use logic to proceed from premises to conclusions.
LLMs also have nothing that actually grounds their output in concrete reality; this also promotes fictional output.
So, yes, absolutely - ChatGPT and its ilk are best modeled by Lanley, a smooth-talking con artist who will tell you what you want to hear.
Eric Topol also tweeted about a new study:
"Noteworthy: a new study comparing #ChatGPT vs doctors for responding to patient queries demonstrated clearcut superiority of #AI for improved quality and empathy of responses "
The study is here at JAMA Internal Medicine:
Presumably a future advance will be to train our models to spontaneously infer consequences from their 'beliefs' and to adjust their views when that process produces contradiction (or just internal tension). Current generation AI can't do that both because it doesn't have anything like beliefs or a process for spontaneously generating new consequences from it's beliefs but, while it may take some clever new approaches, no reason to believe that this can't be done. Once done AI may have something very much like our ability to generate strongly held countermajoritarian beliefs.
I haven't read this whole article, but ChatGTP produces better fiction (stories) than fact. Ex.
what can you tell me about the San Antonio Dire Wolf?
The San Antonio Dire Wolf, also known as Canis dirus guildayi, is an extinct subspecies of the Dire Wolf that lived during the Late Pleistocene epoch in North America, around 300,000 to 12,000 years ago. It was named after the location where the first fossils of this subspecies were found in San Antonio, Texas. The San Antonio Dire Wolf was larger than ... Snip ...
What is your source for fossils found in San Antonio?
I apologize for the confusion in my previous response. After reviewing my information, it appears that there is no evidence to suggest that the San Antonio Dire Wolf was named after fossils found in San Antonio, Texas.
NOTE: I have had it actually invent papers and authors when citing these types of fictional entities.
I recently wrote about this and included many of the same points (the Vanderbilt email, for example). The best description I’ve heard so far, and which lines up with what you’re saying, is that “ChatGPT is an ideology machine.” Here’s my article if anyone’s curious:
I’m hoping it winds up like the calculator. I don’t think calculators actually put people out of business.